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Several options in Thursday’s NBA DFS player pool, who are off to inauspicious starts to the 2024 NBA playoffs, will get another shot at redemption tonight. Tobias Harris, OG Anunoby, Austin Reaves and Jalen Suggs are all averaging 11 points or fewer in the postseason, thus disappointing both their teams and those daily Fantasy basketball players that rostered them in NBA DFS lineups. Harris has been the biggest disappointment as he came into this year with a 17.1 ppg postseason average but is putting up just 8.5 ppg so far on 39% shooting.

His price tags on NBA DFS sites like FanDuel and DraftKings have dropped, which means he could be a value pick for Thursday. However, it would be beneficial to your NBA daily Fantasy strategy to know that Harris was locked down by the Knicks in the regular season, averaging just 6.3 points across four games. What other trends should you be aware of before setting your daily Fantasy basketball lineups for Thursday? Before making your NBA DFS picks, be sure to check out the NBA DFS advice, player rankings, stacks, and top daily Fantasy basketball picks from SportsLine’s Mike McClure.

McClure is a DFS professional with more than $2 million in career winnings. He’s also a predictive data engineer at SportsLine who uses a powerful prediction model that simulates every minute of every game 10,000 times, taking factors like matchups, statistical trends and injuries into account.

This allows him to find the best NBA DFS values and create optimal lineups that he shares only over at SportsLine. They’re a must-see for any NBA DFS player.

On Wednesday, McClure highlighted Heat forward Nikola Jovic as one of his top picks in his NBA DFS player pool on both sites. The result: Jovic had 11 points, nine rebounds, six assists, three steals and a block, returning 38.25 points on DraftKings and 37.8 points on FanDuel. Anybody who included him in their lineups was well on the way to a profitable day.

McClure has turned his attention to NBA action on Thursday and locked in his top daily Fantasy basketball picks. You can only see them by heading to SportsLine.

Top NBA DFS picks for Thursday, April 24
For Thursday, one of McClure’s top NBA DFS picks is rostering Lakers forward LeBron James who is listed at $9,500 on DraftKings and $10,500 on FanDuel. The Lakers being in a 2-0 hole isn’t the fault of James, who is averaging 26.5 points, 10 assists, seven rebounds, 1.5 blocks and 1.5 steals in the series. Despite L.A. suffering 10 straight defeats to Denver, James has still scored at least 21 points in each of his last 11 games against the Nuggets, with five double-doubles over that stretch.

James gets a two-day rest between Games 2 and 3, and he’s been at his best this season when having two days off. James averages his most points (27.1), rebounds (8.4) and assists (9.1) with two days of rest compared to any other rest interval. He’s also been on an incredibly efficient shooting run as of late as over his last nine games, counting both the regular and postseason, James is converting on 61.1% of his field goal attempts and 52.5% of his 3-point attempts.

Another part of McClure’s optimal NBA DFS strategy includes rostering Magic forward Jonathan Isaac ($4,800 on DraftKings and $5,700 on FanDuel). In part due to injuries, Isaac started just two regular season games over the last four years. However, he started in each of the first two games of Orlando’s series versus Cleveland, getting the nod ahead of Wendell Carter Jr. and Moe Wagner at center.

Isaac is a defensive ace who contributes across the board, doing so on a very affordable NBA DFS price point. Over his last six games versus Cleveland, he’s averaging 8.7 points, 5.5 rebounds, 2.0 blocks and 1.5 steals. Like many young players, Isaac performs notably better at home as the series shifts to Orlando for Game 3 tonight. He averaged more points, rebounds, assists and blocks at home than on the road this season, while also shooting better percentages from the floor, the free throw line and from beyond the arc. See McClure’s other NBA DFS picks right here.

How to set your NBA DFS lineups for Thursday, April 25
McClure is also targeting a player who could go off for massive numbers on Thursday because of a dream matchup. This pick could be the difference between winning your tournaments and cash games or going home with nothing. You can only see who it is here.

Who is DFS pro Mike McClure putting in his optimal NBA DFS lineups for Thursday? Visit SportsLine now to see optimal NBA DFS picks, rankings, advice, and stacks, all from a professional DFS player who has over $2 million in career winnings, and find out.

The series has shifted over to the Sunshine State as the No. 5 seed Orlando Magic are hosting the No. 4 seed Cleveland Cavaliers on Thursday. These teams split the season series 2-2 but that hasn’t been the case in this series. On Monday, the Cavaliers outlasted the Magic 96-86 to go up 2-0 in this 2024 NBA playoffs series. Orlando plays better at home, logging a 29-12 record at Kia Center during the regular season.

Tip-off is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET at the Kia Center in Orlando, Fla. The Magic are 2.5-point favorites in the latest Cavaliers vs. Magic odds, while the over/under for total points is 201.5. Before making any Magic vs. Cavaliers picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters the second week of the 2024 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 90-58 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,800. Anyone following the model has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Cavaliers vs. Magic and just locked in its picks and Game 3 predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Magic vs. Cavaliers:

Cavaliers vs. Magic spread: Orlando -2.5
Cavaliers vs. Magic over/under: 201.5 points
Cavaliers vs. Magic money line: Orlando -141, Cleveland +119
CLE: The Cavs are 4-2 ATS in their last six games
ORL: The Magic are 1-5 ATS in their past six games
Cavaliers vs. Magic picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Cavaliers can cover
Forward Evan Mobley joins Jarrett Allen in the frontcourt and makes a serious impact. Mobley is an agile big man who has the skill to handle the rock if needed. The USC product plays with good timing as a shot blocker and is always crashing the boards. Mobley averaged 15.7 points and 9.4 rebounds per game in the regular season. In Game 1, the 22-year-old had 16 points, 11 boards, and three blocks.

Guard Darius Garland is a shifty playmaker who has a quick release with a knack for hitting shots off the dribble. The Vanderbilt product also owns a nice floater in the lane. He put up 18 points and 6.5 assists per contest in 2023-24. In his last outing, Garland notched 15 points, four assists, and went 4-of-7 from beyond the arc. See which team to pick here.

Why the Magic can cover
Forward Paolo Banchero continues to be the Magic’s best player on the floor. Banchero is an all-around threat due to his playmaking and scoring ability. The Duke product gets into the lane consistently and has the vision to get his teammates good looks. Through the first two contests, Banchero leads the team in points (22.5) with five boards and four assists per game. He had 21 points, three assists, and three rebounds in his last outing.

Forward Franz Wagner gives the Magic another capable ball handler and scorer. Wagner plays with good instincts and has a smooth jumper to space out the floor. In the regular season, the Michigan product averaged 19.7 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game. In the Game 1 loss, Wagner racked up 18 points, seven boards, and three steals. See which team to pick here.

How to make Magic vs. Cavaliers picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 206 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can see the picks only at SportsLine.

So who wins Cavaliers vs. Magic, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Magic vs. Cavaliers spread you need to jump on, all from the model on a 90-58 roll on top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.

The Philadelphia 76ers will look to climb back into their first-round series when they take on the New York Knicks in Game 3 on Thursday. The Knicks (50-32), who won three of four games against Philadelphia during the regular season, were 23-18 on the road in 2023-24. The 76ers (47-35), who have won nine of 11, were 25-16 on their home court this season. Entering this 2024 NBA playoffs series, Philadelphia has won five of the previous eight postseason matchups against New York. Joel Embiid (knee) and De’Anthony Melton (back) are questionable for Philly, with Mitchell Robinson (knee) questionable for New York.

The game from the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia will tip off at 7:30 p.m. ET. Philadelphia averaged 114.6 points per game during the regular season, 15th-best in the NBA, while New York averaged 112.8, 19th-best. The Sixers are 5.5-point favorites in the latest Knicks vs. 76ers odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 204.5. Before making any 76ers vs. Knicks picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters the second week of the 2024 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 90-58 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,800. Anyone following has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Knicks vs. 76ers and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for 76ers vs. Knicks:

Knicks vs. 76ers spread: Philadelphia -5.5
Knicks vs. 76ers over/under: 204.5 points
Knicks vs. 76ers money line: New York +194, Philadelphia -238
NY: The Knicks are 7-0 in their last seven games
PHI: The 76ers are 11-2 ATS in their past 13 games
Knicks vs. 76ers picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the 76ers can cover
Point guard Tyrese Maxey poured in 35 points, grabbed nine rebounds and dished out 10 assists in Game 2. It marked the first 30-point, 10-assist postseason game by a 76er since Allen Iverson in 2005. Through two playoff games, Maxey is averaging 34 points, 5.5 rebounds and seven assists, making him one of three players averaging at least 30 points, five rebounds and five assists, joining Luka Doncic and Embiid. Maxey has totaled 68 points and 14 assists in his first two playoff appearances in 2024, joining Wilt Chamberlain and Iverson as the only 76ers with at least 65 points and 10 assists in their first two postseason games.

Power forward Tobias Harris nearly had a double-double in Game 2 with 10 points and nine rebounds. Over the last 10 games, Harris is averaging 17.7 points, 7.9 rebounds, 2.9 assists and 1.6 blocks. He has had lots of success throughout his career against the Knicks. In 34 games against New York, he is averaging 17.2 points, 6.2 rebounds and 2.8 assists in 34.3 minutes. See which team to pick here.

Why the Knicks can cover
Point guard Jalen Brunson continues to power New York and is coming off a 24-point, eight-rebound and six-assist effort on Monday. He has been on fire over the past 10 games. During that span, he is averaging 37.8 points, 3.6 rebounds and 8.3 assists. He has played well against the 76ers all year, averaging 22.3 points and 7.8 assists in four regular-season games against them. In 77 regular-season games, all starts, he averaged 28.7 points and 6.7 assists in 35.4 minutes, all career highs.

Shooting guard Josh Hart has stepped up his game for the postseason. After averaging 9.4 points, 8.3 rebounds and 4.1 assists during the regular season, he has registered two consecutive double-doubles to start the playoffs. In Game 1, Hart scored 22 points, grabbed 13 rebounds and dished out two assists in a 111-104 win. In Game 2, he scored 21 points, grabbed 15 rebounds and added three assists, two blocks and two steals. See which team to pick here.

How to make 76ers vs. Knicks picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 215 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits 60% of the time. You can only get the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Knicks vs. 76ers, and which side of the spread hits in 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that has returned more than $2,800 on its NBA picks this season, and find out.

The Philadelphia 76ers (32-23) will host the Cleveland Cavaliers (36-18) in an affair on Friday evening. Cleveland is currently second in the Eastern Conference, while Philadelphia is fifth in the conference standings. This is the third matchup of the campaign between these foes after they split the first two contests. Joel Embiid (knee) and Kyle Lowry (reconditioning) are out for the Sixers, while Donovan Mitchell (illness) is questionable for the Cavs.

Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET at Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia. Cleveland is a 5.5-point favorite in the latest Cavaliers vs. 76ers odds via SportsLine consensus. The over/under for total points is 229.5. Before making any 76ers vs. Cavaliers picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions from SportsLine’s proven model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters Week 18 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a sizzling 60-36 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,300. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Cavs vs. Sixers. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Sixers vs. Cavs:

Cavaliers vs. 76ers spread: Cleveland -5.5
Cavaliers vs. 76ers over/under: 229.5 points
Cavaliers vs. 76ers money line: Cleveland -214, Philadelphia +176
PHI: Sixers are 31-23 ATS this season
CLE: Cavaliers are 14-10 ATS on the road this season
Cavaliers vs. 76ers picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the 76ers can cover
Guard Tyrese Maxey is an athletic threat in the backcourt. Maxey thrives in the pick-and-roll as a scorer and facilitator. The 23-year-old is averaging 25.7 points and 6.4 assists per game. He also shoots 37% from downtown and 85% from the free-throw line. In Wednesday’s game versus the Knicks, Maxey dropped 35 points and five assists.

Guard Buddy Hield was recently acquired from the Indiana Pacers and he gives the Sixers another threat on the perimeter who excels as a catch-and-shoot option. The Oklahoma product is averaging 22.3 points, four rebounds and 7.5 assists in four games with the 76ers. On Feb. 14 against the Heat, Hield finished with 22 points, 10 assists and made five threes. See who to back at SportsLine.

Why the Cavaliers can cover
Guard Darius Garland is a smooth offensive weapon who possesses a quick release on his jumpers and will knock down shots on the perimeter. The Vanderbilt product logs 18.2 points and 5.9 assists per game. He’s dished out at least seven assists in four straight games. In the Feb. 12 game against the 76ers, Garland dropped 21 points and nine assists.

Center Jarrett Allen is a terrific two-way presence on the floor. Allen’s length disturbs shooting lanes and helps him be an effective shot blocker. The Texas product can rack up easy looks in the lane. Allen is eighth in the NBA in rebounds (10.6) and fifth in field-goal percentage (64%). He’s also notched five straight double-doubles. See who to back at SportsLine.

How to make Cavaliers vs. 76ers picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Under on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 226 points. The model also says one side hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the picks at SportsLine.

After easily dispatching a Lakers team, sans LeBron James, last night, Steph Curry and the Warriors get a much less potent opponent on Friday. They host the Hornets, and Curry figures to factor into lots of player props against his hometown team. For his career versus any team, the two-time MVP has averaged his fifth-most points (26.7) and fourth-most assists (7.1) against Charlotte. Curry has an NBA props total for points at 28.5 for tonight, while his NBA props line for assists is at 6.5.

Curry has hit the Over on both of those totals in just six games this season. However, his dad, Dell, works for the Hornets, and his brother, Seth Curry, was just traded to Charlotte, so Steph Curry may want to put on a show in front of his family. Should you combine player props for Curry’s points and assists into an NBA parlay for Friday? Before making any NBA prop picks on sites like PrizePicks for Friday, be sure to check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters Week 18 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a sizzling 60-36 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,300. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

For Friday’s NBA schedule, the model has locked in its NBA best bets. You can only see the model’s NBA prop picks at SportsLine.

Top NBA prop bet for Friday
After simulating every game on Friday’s NBA schedule 10,000 times, the model is picking Under 27.5 points for Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards at -115 odds. Minnesota takes on Milwaukee, and this will be the Wolves’ first game out of the All-Star break. Edwards has a trend of putting out somewhat underwhelming performances when coming off long breaks as he’s gone Under 27.5 points in all four of his games this season coming off a rest of at least three days. That trend isn’t just reserved for this season, as for his career, his scoring average of 21.3 points per game with three-plus days of rest is lower than after any other rest interval.

Edwards is averaging just 20.1 points over his last eight home games, and the Target Center will play host tonight. He actually has more games with single-digit points (three) over this stretch than he has games with 30-plus points (two). Add in that he’s scored under 27.5 points in six of seven career games versus the Bucks, and the model comfortably backs the Under in this matchup. You can see which other NBA picks to back here.

All NBA prop bets for Friday
See Raptors vs. Hawks props here
See 76ers vs. Cavaliers props here
See Suns vs. Rockets props here
See Thunder vs. Wizards props here
See Clippers vs. Grizzlies props here
See Heat vs. Pelicans props here
See Bucks vs. Timberwolves props here
See Warriors vs. Hornets props here
See Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers props here
See Lakers vs. Spurs props here

How to make NBA prop picks for Friday
The model has simulated every NBA game 10,000 times and has some surprising projections for Friday’s schedule. You can only see the model’s NBA best bets and SGP picks at SportsLine.

The Chicago Bulls will be without Patrick Williams for the remainder of the season, as the fourth-year forward is expected to undergo season-ending surgery on his left foot to repair a stress reaction. The Bulls announced Friday afternoon that while Williams underwent routine imaging on what was initially announced as bone edema, the injury worsened into a stress reaction, which will result in surgery.

It’s a significant blow for Williams and the Bulls, who have dealt with injuries to key players throughout this season. Most recently, Zach LaVine also underwent season-ending surgery on his right foot in early February. That’s in addition to also being without Lonzo Ball for almost two seasons now with a knee injury.

While the Bulls have struggled to field a fully healthy team for two seasons now, this stings more for Williams who was in the midst of a contract year. He’s playing on the final year of his rookie contract, and will become a restricted free agent this summer. Being a restricted free agent allows the Bulls to match any offer sheet Williams gets from an opposing team in free agency, but given this injury, and the pedestrian stats he’s posted through four seasons, it’s unlikely that he’ll command a ton of attention. He’s struggled to be aggressive on offense, though his defensive value is a positive for Chicago.

Through 43 games this season, Williams averaged 10 points and 3.9 rebounds, while shooting 44.3% from the field and 39.9% from deep.

For Chicago, the impact this has on the current season isn’t too significant, given that the Bulls have been playing without Williams for some time now. Losing him is unfortunate for Chicago, especially on the defensive end, where he’s shown flashes of being a stout defender. As the Bulls continue to hunt for a playoff spot, not having Williams in the rotation going forward means Chicago will be a little light with its depth through the home stretch of the season.

The Charlotte Hornets are going to be sellers at 2024 NBA trade deadline, and they made their first move on Tuesday. The Hornets are sending Terry Rozier to the Miami Heat in exchange for Kyle Lowry and a 2027 first-round pick, according to Adrian Wojnarowski. The pick is lottery protected in 2027 and unprotected if it conveys to 2028, per Wojnarowski.

Rozier is averaging career highs in points (23.2) and assists (6.6) this year and had to carry a heavier load when LaMelo Ball missed a lengthy spell with an ankle injury. Now he’ll get a chance to form a new backcourt duo alongside Tyler Herro in Miami. Rozier has spent nine seasons in the NBA (four in Boston, five in Charlotte) and is ninth in the league in 3-pointers made since the start of the 2019-20 season.

The Heat (24-19, sixth in the East) have been in the market for a new point guard for a while. Their pursuit of Damian Lillard was unsuccessful over the offseason and Lowry’s decline has left them longing for more backcourt production. Now they’ll bring in the 29-year-old Rozier who’s quietly having his best season yet.

Rozier’s four-year, $97 million contract is set to expire in 2026, while Lowry — who is making more than $29 million this season — is set to become an unrestricted free agent this summer. The Hornets have no immediate buyout plans for him and are expected to look for a suitable trade partner for Lowry before the Feb. 8 trade deadline, according to Wojnarowski. But if Lowry is not part of another deal in the next two-plus weeks, he very well could become one of the biggest names on the buyout market.

Lowry, who turns 38 in March, is averaging 8.2 points and 28 minutes per game this season. A six-time All-Star, Lowry came off the bench for the Heat in his last two games after starting in his first 35 appearances this season.

The rebuilding Hornets (10-31, 13th in the East) are expected to be one of the most active trade deadline sellers in the NBA. Charlotte could also move veterans like Gordon Hayward, Miles Bridges, PJ Washington and Cody Martin. Hayward is averaging 14.5 points per game, but his hefty expiring contract ($31.5 million) could make him difficult to trade.

The NBA announced Tuesday that Cleveland Cavaliers forward Tristan Thompson has received a 25-game suspension for violating the NBA’s anti-drug program. He tested positive for ibutamoren and SARM LGD-4033, per the NBA’s release. Thompson will not be paid during his suspension.

The following was released by the NBA: pic.twitter.com/oqNXP7Zvak

— NBA Communications (@NBAPR) January 23, 2024
Ibutamoren and SARM LGD-4033 are banned substances that artificially raise HGH levels and improve strength, per Rachel Nichols.

Thompson, a 32-year-old veteran in his second stint with the Cavs, has provided valuable backup center minutes for them this season. Evan Mobley hasn’t played in over a month due to a knee injury that required surgery and is ramping up his training to return to the hardwood. Thompson has helped stabilize Cleveland’s rotation with five points and five rebounds per game since Mobley last played on Dec. 6. Now the Cavs will have to look elsewhere for bench production.

Thompson spent the first nine seasons with the Cavaliers and helped them win the franchise’s first and only championship in 2016 alongside LeBron James and Kyrie Irving. Thompson also had stints with the Celtics, Kings, Pacers, Bulls and Lakers before returning to Cleveland at the start of this season.

Damian Jones is the most likely candidate to fill in for Thompson, as Isaiah Mobley has appeared in just three games this season. Cleveland could also look for frontcourt depth on the trade market ahead of the Feb. 8 deadline.

Thompson’s suspension is set to begin immediately. He is set to be eligible to return to the floor on March 16 against the Rockets.

The 2023-24 NBA season has reached the midway point, which means it’s time to zoom out and take stock of the league. Part of that process is reassessing the award races and making predictions about which team will lift the trophy in June. All of our experts have submitted their ballots, so let’s take a look.

To little surprise, there was a clear leader in the MVP race, with Joel Embiid tabbed to go back-to-back. The Philadelphia 76ers big man — fresh off a jaw-dropping 70-point performance on Monday night — is averaging a league-leading and career-high 36.1 points, 11.6 rebounds, 5.9 assists and 1.9 blocks. As it stands, Embiid’s health looks to be the only thing standing between him and another MVP. He’s on pace to play 62 games, which would fall short of the new 65-game threshold.

Coming into the season, No. 1 overall pick Victor Wembanyama was the runaway Rookie of the Year favorite. That’s changed, as the San Antonio Spurs phenom has been matched by Oklahoma City Thunder center Chet Holmgren, who is now the slight betting favorite. Holmgren also received five of seven votes from our panel.

Defensive Player of the Year was the only award that a player swept. Minnesota Timberwolves center Rudy Gobert has been the centerpiece of the league’s best defense, and our experts fully expect him to take home that trophy for the fourth time in his career.

Off the court, there was much more debate about Coach of the Year than Executive of the Year.

Oklahoma City Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault and Philadelphia 76ers head coach Nick Nurse each received three votes for Coach of the Year, while Chris Finch of the Minnesota Timberwolves picked up one.

Brad Stevens, meanwhile, was the unanimous choice for Executive of the Year after bringing Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday to Boston for the league-leading Celtics.

Finally, it was time to gaze into the crystal ball and make picks for the Eastern Conference finals, Western Conference finals and NBA Finals.

Every single expert picked the Celtics to win the East, though some thought it would be over the Milwaukee Bucks, while others had them toppling the 76ers. Out West, the Denver Nuggets were the clear favorite, though the Los Angeles Clippers did receive one vote. As for the Finals, the Celtics got five votes, while the defending champion Nuggets received two.

Third parties haven’t historically experienced much success in this country. No candidate outside of the two major political parties has won the presidency since the 1800s. No third-party candidate has even won a state since 1968.

Oklahoma City guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, through his phenomenal play this season, is doing his best to flip that third-party narrative.

The 2023-24 MVP race, as it has for the past four seasons, features dominant centers Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid as the hands-down favorites, and with good reason. Nobody in their right mind can sit here and tell you that neither Jokic nor Embiid deserves the award. They’re outstanding, unstoppable, transcendent — choose your most laudatory adjective.

But if you’re not at least including Gilgeous-Alexander in the conversation, you’re leaving out a key component to the MVP equation. Let’s take a look at just a few reasons why.

Scoring
First off, the sixth-year guard is one of the best and most unique bucket-getters you’ll ever see. He’s averaging over 31 points for the second consecutive year, and he’s largely done it without the aid of the ubiquitous 3-point shot. No guard has averaged over 30 points while making fewer than two 3-pointers per game since Dwyane Wade 15 years ago. Gilgeous-Alexander is doing it for the second straight season. His mastery of the mid-range and finishing ability around the basket continue to baffle defenses.

He gets wherever he wants, whenever he wants — and when he gets there, he shoots 52% on midrange jumpers, the most accurate of any player averaging at least four midrange shots per game, per NBA.com.

If you defend against the jumper, Gilgeous-Alexander uses his lithe 6-foot-6 frame to slither into the tightest of gaps and finish creatively with either hand.

He averages 1.383 points per possession around the rim, per Synergy Sports, putting him in the company of massive human beings like Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James and Zion Williamson. The only guard remotely in SGA’s league when it comes to efficiency at the basket is Tyrese Maxey, and there’s a large drop-off.

But don’t be mistaken — Gilgeous-Alexander is far more than just a scorer.

Winning
It’s one thing to put up massive numbers — if you want to be in the mix with guys like Jokic and Embiid, your team needs to perform when you’re on the floor. That’s not a problem for Gilgeous-Alexander, who does the heavy lifting for the Thunder’s top-five offense. When he’s on the bench, OKC scores 111 points per 100 possessions. When he’s on the court, that balloons to 122.5 points per 100 possessions — better than the league’s top offense.

Gilgeous-Alexander averages over six assists per game, a career-high, but his impact goes well beyond those numbers. As head coach Mark Daigneault readily professes, the entire OKC offense is built around SGA and the defensive attention he commands on every possession.

“We had players on the team that they weren’t guarding. They were just loading up on Shai,” Daigneault said. “And it’s like, OK, where do we space them? We learned different spacing from that. We learned the cutting triggers and how to activate that from that experience.”

Here’s an example of the kind of cutting Daigneault is talking about. Watch how Gilgeous-Alexander draws a second defender — not once, but twice in the same possession — and it leads to successive hard cuts resulting in an easy and-one layup for Josh Giddey. No assist for SGA, but he’s chiefly responsible for the bucket.

On this play, the Heat are so concerned with Gilgeous-Alexander on a simple back-screen that they leave two defenders with him and completely ignore a wide-open Isaiah Joe under the basket. Sure, it’s a horrendous defensive breakdown from a normally disciplined team, but that’s what a talent like SGA does to you.

Gilgeous-Alexander isn’t a one-way player, either. Nobody will ever confuse him for a lockdown defensive stopper, but he uses his length, quick hands and anticipation so well that he leads the NBA in steals per game this season. Watch as he moves his feet to stay with offensive dynamo Jamal Murray, avoiding fouling before he eventually picks his pocket.

When it comes down to it, Gilgeous-Alexander is a stout enough defender that other teams can’t effectively hunt him possession after possession — and that’s what’s going to matter as the Thunder attempt to make a deep playoff run. Speaking of which …

Narrative
The Thunder were a cute story last season, winning 40 games and making the play-in after landing in the 20s the previous two years. But this season’s team has a legitimate chance to not only earn the top seed in the Western Conference, but also potentially win the NBA title. They’re in the top six in both offensive and defensive efficiency, a traditional marker of a championship contender. The Thunder are perhaps the premier feel-good story of the NBA season — and what is the MVP about, if not a feel-good story?

Clutch moments like this step-back 3-pointer to seal the win over the West-leading Minnesota Timberwolves only strengthen Gilgeous-Alexander’s narrative.

Stepback Shai for three 🎯 pic.twitter.com/XMva5LWjbb

— OKC THUNDER (@okcthunder) January 21, 2024
OKC’s only meaningful addition this season was rookie Chet Holmgren, and he’s been phenomenal. But ultimately this team’s success comes down to their superstar, and Gilgeous-Alexander has been the conductor of the NBA’s Little Engine That Could. Jokic and Embiid deservingly dominate the conversation, but there’s a strong argument to be made that Gilgeous-Alexander should be directly alongside them when it comes to MVP favorites.